Shiva claims there are clear signs of fraud in three counties: Oakland, Macomb, and Kent. You can click any of the graphs to see a larger version.ĭr. Equations are preceded by a number in brackets (e.g., ) to make it easy to reference them. I assume you can mentally convert from a proportion (e.g., 0.25) to the corresponding percentage (e.g., 25%) as needed. I’ll be using proportions (numbers between 0.0 and 1.0) instead of percentages to avoid carrying around a lot of factors of 100 in equations. I = proportion of individual-candidate presidential votes going to Trump for a precinct X = proportion of straight-party votes going to the Republican party for a precinct Shiva compares the percentage of straight-party votes won by the Republicans to the percentage of individual-candidate votes won by Trump and claims to observe patterns that imply some votes for Trump were transferred to Biden in a systematic way by an algorithm controlling the vote-counting machine. Alternatively, they can fill in a box for one candidate for each office, known as an individual-candidate vote. Voters have the option to fill in a single box to vote for a particular party for all offices, referred to as a straight-party vote. The data he considers to be so anomalous could easily be a consequence of normal voter behavior - there is no need to talk about fractional votes or vote stealing to explain it. Shiva’s idea of normal to be either wrong or too limited. I use a little math to model reasonable voter behavior in order to determine what should be considered normal, and I find Dr. Shiva makes various claims about what graphs should look like under normal circumstances and asserts that deviations are a signal that fraud has occurred.
Shiva’s first video ( twitter, youtube) and I’ll respond to his second video ( twitter, youtube) toward the end.
I’ll start by elaborating on some tweets I wrote ( 1, 2, 3) in response to Dr.
Shiva’s arguments about curve shape are convincing. To be clear, I am not making any claim about whether or not fraud occurred - I’m only addressing whether Dr. SHIVA Ayyadurai’s claims that the shape of some graphs generated from Michigan voting data suggests that the vote count was being fraudulently manipulated.
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